Friday, July 9, 2021

Personal (Air) Space?


[This and previous four posts feature a slide-show for delivery at a forthcoming event]

Two-wheel types (Honda Super Cub) outsell four- (Corolla) by 100 million v. 37 million.


Global number of bicycles 2/3rds that of cars (1.0 to 1.5 billion).


25 years into car manufacture, horse-drawn buggies still outnumbered cars.


In the same year (1910) there was one horse for every four people in the USA.


Single occupancy of cars & vans exceeds 60%, moreso on the commute.


For an eighth year running, ATVs hit record sales of 700,000 plus in 2020.


Jet-skis form 25% of all sales of powerboats.


US aviation fleet in 2020: for-hire 6k, airliner 7.5k and GA 205k.


What most effects economies… public transport or private vehicles?


What might most effect 3-D travel… airliner, air-taxi, or personal air vehicle?


Why do institutions, governments, airlines and corporations invest in air taxis...


… that are costly to certify, and in many cases appear only on-screen?


'King’s New Clothes' effect, or the fear of getting it wrong.


(Photo from the Depression, when cars were literally reverted to horse-power).


Capital flows to capitalists like water runs to the sea, and the four latest SPACs for Joby, Lilium, Archer and Vertical are ways of making small fortunes in aviation by starting with a large. The reason few investors are drawn to personal air vehicles is historic, with the Jetsons never taking off and the fact a donkey derby is harder to rate than the Kentucky. Nobody was sacked for buying IBM, while in the UK you're least likely to lose on a venture backed by government, billionaires or Rolls Royce, regardless of credibility. But given the history, could you really bet against a market for air-vehicles with sole occupants?